Remember this Number: 19.3
When I look at a number like 19.3--especially when it's a figure that's "compounded annually," I'm thinking immediately of our beloved banks and their gouge-you-until-you-die credit cards.
19.3% We're Talking Ridiculous Credit Card Money, Folks
The only way 19.3% interest is coming into my life is when I'm paying it, because I'm sure not getting that kind of interest on any account I have from those same beloved banks.
But here's why you need to remember 19.3: it's the forecast for growth in local advertising spending between 2009 and 2014.
That's a significant number, wouldn't you say? Oh. I'm sorry. Did I forget the key takeaway? I did. I'm not talking about local television, radio or newspapers. I'm talking online and digital. BIA/Kelsey predicts online and interactive local media spending will take off, from $15.2 billion to $36.7 billion.
At the same time, local legacy media will keep on sliding, dropping slow and steady this year, going flat in 2011 and then (hoo-ray!) the big rebound! Okay. Not exactly big or a rebound. But a lift. A little lift. "Even with improvements in the overall economy, we do not anticipate a rapid recovery among traditional media over the forecast period, because we believe the structural change in the local media industry has accelerated," Neal Polachek, president of BIA/Kelsey, told MediaWeek.
What that means in English is this: everything's changed, and the money's headed online--big time. Run the lines out a few years and tell me where you want to be working in 2015: at a television station? Or online? Sure, stations will say "we are online," but remember what Polachek said, that structural change has accelerated. Structural change does not mean adding a URL to your traditional, 1950's vintage media model. It means rethinking the whole damn thing from the ground up. And some people--the big thinkers out there--are going to get very stinking rich.
So think about your career. And remember 19.3.
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Recent Comments
- For the record: September 2nd | Chipcinnati on Apple’s Message to Local News: If Your Viewers are Running Away, Why Not Follow Them?
- links for 2010-09-02 : The ChipCast || by Chip Mahaney on Apple’s Message to Local News: If Your Viewers are Running Away, Why Not Follow Them?
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February 22nd, 2010 - 20:49
If the private sector fuels all that advertising and it is under severe assault by government, and if private-sector workers are losing jobs or fearful of losing them, how on earth can anyone expect advertising to grow that robustly? After all, advertising growth depends on a healthy private sector. And it’s not anywhere near ‘healthy.’ Unless Nancy Pelosi wants to start advertising Botox, or Harry Reid wants to start advertising Depends, this growth won’t occur.